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@softwareengineerprogrammer softwareengineerprogrammer commented Dec 22, 2025

Description

  1. Addresses Project Cape Construction Timelines & Reservoir Engineering Updates NREL/GEOPHIRES-X#443
  2. Addresses Remove or clarify SAM-EM project payback period NREL/GEOPHIRES-X#413 (8764602)
  3. Addresses SAM Economic Models ITC should be derived from cash flow NREL/GEOPHIRES-X#404 (SAM-EM ITC output #124)

Web interface links:

  1. Fervo_Project_Cape-5 (500 MW/Phase II): https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?shared-geophires-result-id=effff059-b8d9-4c11-af32-5943083614b6
  2. Fervo_Project_Cape-6 (100 MW/Phase I): https://gtp.scientificwebservices.com/geophires/?shared-geophires-result-id=3fe9f9c6-bb24-4331-84f0-22805154ac2b

TODO

  1. 🚧 SME review (reservoir engineering)
  2. 🚧 Calibrate Fervo_Project_Cape-6: 866b4c8
    1. Strip (irrelevant) param comments
  3. Clarify image
  4. Incorporate ATB updates: https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024b/geothermal
  5. Royalties (BLM): 469b250
  6. Sensitivity analysis: address why higher flow rates != better economics: 632e79e
  7. Reference https://www.resfrac.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/Singh-2025-Fervo-Project-Cape.pdf: 0b7da6c
  8. Calibrate exploration cost to https://atb.nrel.gov/electricity/2024b/geothermal: b94b01f
    1. Created tracking issue to update GEOPHIRES correlation :Update exploration cost correlation according to 2024b ATB NREL/GEOPHIRES-X#447
  9. 🚧 Documentation and references
    1. Drilling & stim costs clarifications in Inputs: 64da798, 77e5fd2
    2. Clarify calibration of drawdown/redrilling wrt 1-2% expected annual decline: Technical results graphs #125, Production temperature technical results graph #126
    3. Construction CAPEX schedule
    4. Approach & Methodology update: Clarify SOAK vs. FOAK vs. NOAK: 1e960e4
    5. Describe case study use cases e.g. as a template for custom modeling: 1e960e4
    6. ITC
    7. TOD/ambient temp: 3f96592
    8. OCC vs total capex: a791d54
  10. Sensitivity analysis chart tweaks:
    1. Flow rate text overlap
    2. Link titles (on hover)
  11. Sensitivity analysis: https://github.com/scientific-web-services/geophires-fpc4-sensitivity-analysis
  12. Surface temperature fine-tune based on Project InnerSpace GeoMap: 9af9f1d
  13. Multiple construction years: Update Fervo_Project_Cape-4 based on publicly stated timelines - https://fervoenergy.com/fervo-energy-raises-462-million-series-e-to-accelerate-geothermal-development-and-meet-surging-energy-demand-with-clean-firm-power/
    1. Phase II: 500 MW: Fervo_Project_Cape-4
    2. Phase I: 100 MW: Fervo_Project_Cape-5: 71607b7
  14. Reservoir engineering updates
    1. ~8.5" ID
    2. Flow rate
    3. Fracture surface area
    4. PI/II instead of impedance
    5. Number of Fractures per Stimulated Well
    6. Increased lateral length (adjust fracture separation accordingly)
  15. Higher discount & bond rates

Testing & Verification

  1. Unit tests added: Retains test for previous version: https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/pull/117/changes#diff-77443b51920606ff05244e83370cb4bbd78fb8ee13076d9356d5051c2c9fbef5
  2. Unit tests updated: https://github.com/softwareengineerprogrammer/GEOPHIRES/pull/117/changes#diff-35ea0c0b80463f35958a7d1d7396bad7ad397a7c8e8d96a49da5b90e756c7c7c
  3. Manually tested
fervo_project_cape-5-sensitivity-analysis-lcoe fervo_project_cape-5-sensitivity-analysis-irr fervo_project_cape-5-sensitivity-analysis-project_npv

Change Checklist:

Observe the following checklist items if your change includes a new version (see versioning notes and version management docs).

Before merging:

  1. Add a CHANGELOG entry (example). RST Template:
M.m.P: `TITLE <https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/pull/PR-NUMBER>`__ | `release <https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/releases/tag/vM.m.P>`__

After merging:

  1. Push tag(s) to GitHub: git push origin refs/tags/vM.m.P
  2. Post a change announcement to the GEOPHIRES Change Announcements Discussion (example). Markdown template:
M.m.p: [TITLE](https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/pull/PR-NUMBER) | [release](https://github.com/NREL/GEOPHIRES-X/releases/tag/vM.m.P)

@softwareengineerprogrammer softwareengineerprogrammer changed the title Project Cape MCY and Reservoir Engineering updates Project Cape Construction (MCY) and Reservoir Engineering updates Jan 1, 2026
@softwareengineerprogrammer softwareengineerprogrammer changed the title Project Cape Construction (MCY) and Reservoir Engineering updates Project Cape Construction Timeline (MCY) and Reservoir Engineering updates Jan 1, 2026
@softwareengineerprogrammer softwareengineerprogrammer changed the title Project Cape Construction Timeline (MCY) and Reservoir Engineering updates Project Cape Multi-Year Construction Timeline and Reservoir Engineering updates Jan 6, 2026
@softwareengineerprogrammer softwareengineerprogrammer changed the title Project Cape Multi-Year Construction Timeline and Reservoir Engineering updates Fervo_Project_Cape-4 Multi-Year Construction Timeline and Reservoir Engineering updates Jan 6, 2026
…ection-wells-per-production-well

Add `Number of Injection Wells per Production Well` parameter
… Singh et al., 2025. WIP to update fracture size and re-tune min net generation (currently test fails because it is now 499.2 MW) and cite Singh et al.
…mperature-technical-results-graph

Production temperature technical results graph
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2 participants