Update natural gas regression parameters with AEO 2026 data

aeo_updates/natural_gas_price_regression/aeo_pipeline_config.json

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 {
-  "aeo_year": 2025,
+  "aeo_year": 2026,
   "start_year": 2010,
   "end_year": 2050,
   "paths": {
@@ -8,33 +8,33 @@
   },
   "scenarios": {
     "beta_regression": {
-      "start_year": 2024,
+      "start_year": 2025,
       "end_year": 2050,
       "include": [
-        "lm2025",
-        "hm2025",
+        "hm2026",
+        "lm2026",
         "highZTC",
         "lowZTC",
+        "higheldmd",
+        "altelec",
         "alttrnp",
-        "nocaa111",
-        "ref2025"
+        "electrnp",
+        "cb2026"
       ],
       "exclude_aliases": [
         "highogs",
-        "highprice",
-        "lowprice",
         "lowogs"
       ]
     },
     "alpha_regression": {
       "fetch": [
-        "ref{aeo_year}",
+        "cb{aeo_year}",
         "highogs",
         "lowogs"
       ],
       "outputs": {
         "reference": [
-          "ref{aeo_year}"
+          "cb{aeo_year}"
         ],
         "HOG": [
           "highogs"
@@ -66,6 +66,6 @@
       "Mountain": "Mountain",
       "Pacific": "Pacific"
     },
-    "price_deflator_to_2004": 0.602782
+    "price_deflator_to_2004": 0.586750
   }
 }

aeo_updates/natural_gas_price_regression/inputs for alpha regression/README.md

@@ -11,6 +11,8 @@ These files provide historical data to backfill years (2010 – most recent year
 - `ng_tot_demand_AEO_historical.csv` — Historical total (all-sector) NG demand by census division (Quads).
 - `st_cendiv.csv` — State to Census Division mapping.
 
+Each pipeline run automatically appends the current AEO's calibration year (e.g., AEO 2026 appends 2025) to these CSVs. For prices, the appended value is deflated back to 2024$ so the file remains in a consistent dollar year.
+
 ## Auto-generated files
 
 During the pipeline run, `sync_beta_to_alpha_inputs.py` copies beta regression results (`cd_beta0.csv`, `national_beta.csv`) into this directory. These are then read by `aeo_alpha_regression.py`.

aeo_updates/natural_gas_price_regression/inputs for alpha regression/ng_AEO_historical.csv

@@ -14,3 +14,4 @@ year,East_North_Central,East_South_Central,Mid_Atlantic,Mountain,New_England,Pac
 2022,6.73681,7.91093,6.17517,7.81644,8.92891,8.04040,8.54369,7.62799,7.36052
 2023,2.57670,2.93427,3.09409,3.30029,5.18236,3.49938,3.74350,3.02199,2.51248
 2024,2.28508,2.64533,2.26953,2.84119,3.91474,3.17877,3.58168,2.60507,2.19948
+2025,3.18162,3.67831,3.28914,3.58087,5.18377,3.81538,4.65433,3.44724,3.20723

aeo_updates/natural_gas_price_regression/inputs for alpha regression/ng_demand_AEO_historical.csv

@@ -14,3 +14,4 @@ year,East_North_Central,East_South_Central,Mid_Atlantic,Mountain,New_England,Pac
 2022,1.47769,0.90048,1.99829,0.94774,0.36677,0.85018,2.60534,0.25751,2.79701
 2023,1.33703,1.10878,1.78325,1.01090,0.38207,0.89752,2.93080,0.26185,3.11328
 2024,1.80377,1.12075,1.94787,1.20213,0.45162,1.02698,2.77112,0.32823,3.27809
+2025,1.65962,1.02549,1.82135,1.21019,0.41596,0.85889,2.87384,0.32285,3.06582

aeo_updates/natural_gas_price_regression/inputs for alpha regression/ng_tot_demand_AEO_historical.csv

@@ -14,3 +14,4 @@ year,East_North_Central,East_South_Central,Mid_Atlantic,Mountain,New_England,Pac
 2022,4.94008,1.89274,4.04472,1.91471,0.92315,2.85715,4.15986,1.99868,7.15639
 2023,4.64873,1.86139,3.70918,1.73492,0.91437,2.86945,4.15805,1.87774,6.91027
 2024,4.96334,2.09747,3.90312,2.15953,0.96217,2.98253,4.37537,2.04819,7.42142
+2025,5.01978,2.01659,3.82598,2.18927,0.94249,2.78771,4.54999,2.08700,7.43280