Emit Stage 2 calibration package contract

AGENTS.md

@@ -31,12 +31,14 @@ Before creating or sharing any PR, all developers and agents must:
    `gh repo view PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --json nameWithOwner`.
 2. Push the branch to that repository, for example:
    `git push upstream HEAD:<branch-name>`.
-3. Create the PR from the same repository, for example:
-   `gh pr create --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --head <branch-name> --base main`.
-4. Verify the PR head repository before reporting it:
-   `gh pr view <PR> --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --json headRepositoryOwner,headRepository`.
-
-The PR is valid only if the head repository is `PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data`.
+3. Create the PR as a draft from the same repository, for example:
+   `gh pr create --draft --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --head <branch-name> --base main`.
+4. Verify the PR is draft and the head repository is canonical before reporting
+   it:
+   `gh pr view <PR> --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --json isDraft,headRepositoryOwner,headRepository`.
+
+The PR is valid only if `isDraft` is `true` and the head repository is
+`PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data`.
 If you cannot push to the canonical repository, stop and ask for access. Do not
 create a fork PR as a fallback. If you accidentally create one, immediately
-close it and replace it with a same-repository PR.
+close it and replace it with a same-repository draft PR.

changelog.d/926.added

@@ -0,0 +1,2 @@
+Stage 2 now emits and validates a semantic `calibration_package_contract.json`
+sidecar next to `calibration_package.pkl`.

docs/engineering/skills/github-prs.md

@@ -24,16 +24,18 @@ Before creating or sharing a PR:
    `make lint`.
 6. Push the current branch to the canonical repository:
    `make push-pr-branch`.
-7. Create the PR from that same repository:
-   `gh pr create --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --head "$(git branch --show-current)" --base main`.
-8. Verify the PR head repository:
-   `gh pr view <PR> --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --json headRepositoryOwner,headRepository`.
-
-The PR is valid only if the head repository is
+7. Create the PR as a draft from that same repository:
+   `gh pr create --draft --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --head "$(git branch --show-current)" --base main`.
+8. Verify the PR is draft and the head repository is canonical:
+   `gh pr view <PR> --repo PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data --json isDraft,headRepositoryOwner,headRepository`.
+9. Leave the PR as draft unless a maintainer explicitly asks for it to be
+   marked ready for review.
+
+The PR is valid only if `isDraft` is `true` and the head repository is
 `PolicyEngine/policyengine-us-data`. If you cannot push to the canonical
 repository, stop and ask for access. Do not create a fork PR as a fallback. If
 you accidentally create one, close it immediately and replace it with a
-same-repository PR.
+same-repository draft PR.
 
 ## PR title
 

modal_app/remote_calibration_runner.py

@@ -420,6 +420,19 @@ def _build_package_impl(
     if build_rc != 0:
         raise RuntimeError(f"Package build failed with code {build_rc}")
 
+    from policyengine_us_data.stage_contracts.calibration_package import (
+        CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_CONTRACT_FILENAME,
+        validate_persisted_calibration_package_contract,
+    )
+
+    contract_path = f"{artifacts}/{CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_CONTRACT_FILENAME}"
+    validate_persisted_calibration_package_contract(
+        package_path=Path(pkg_path),
+        contract_path=Path(contract_path),
+        dataset_path=Path(dataset_path),
+        db_path=Path(db_path),
+    )
+
     sidecar_ok = _write_package_sidecar(pkg_path)
     if not sidecar_ok:
         print(

policyengine_us_data/calibration/unified_calibration.py

@@ -30,6 +30,7 @@
 import logging
 import os
 import sys
+from datetime import UTC, datetime
 from pathlib import Path
 from typing import Optional
 
@@ -44,6 +45,9 @@
     create_target_groups,
 )
 from policyengine_us_data.pipeline_metadata import pipeline_node
+from policyengine_us_data.stage_contracts.calibration_package import (
+    CalibrationPackageParameters,
+)
 from policyengine_us_data.pipeline_schema import PipelineNode
 
 logging.basicConfig(
@@ -71,6 +75,41 @@
 DEFAULT_TARGET_CONFIG_PATH = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "target_config.yaml"
 
 
+def _utc_now_isoformat() -> str:
+    """Return a compact UTC timestamp for contract metadata."""
+
+    return datetime.now(UTC).isoformat().replace("+00:00", "Z")
+
+
+def _calibration_package_contract_parameters(
+    *,
+    workers: int,
+    n_clones: int,
+    target_config_path: str | None,
+    skip_county: bool,
+    skip_source_impute: bool,
+    skip_takeup_rerandomize: bool,
+    chunked_matrix: bool,
+    chunk_size: int,
+    parallel: bool,
+    num_matrix_workers: int,
+) -> CalibrationPackageParameters:
+    """Return Stage 2 parameters that affect package construction."""
+
+    return CalibrationPackageParameters.from_runtime_args(
+        workers=workers,
+        n_clones=n_clones,
+        target_config_path=target_config_path,
+        skip_county=skip_county,
+        skip_source_impute=skip_source_impute,
+        skip_takeup_rerandomize=skip_takeup_rerandomize,
+        chunked_matrix=chunked_matrix,
+        chunk_size=chunk_size,
+        parallel=parallel,
+        num_matrix_workers=num_matrix_workers,
+    )
+
+
 def get_git_provenance() -> dict:
     """Capture git state and package version for provenance tracking."""
     import subprocess as _sp
@@ -152,7 +191,11 @@ def check_package_staleness(metadata: dict) -> None:
     if created:
         try:
             built_dt = datetime.datetime.fromisoformat(created)
-            age = datetime.datetime.now() - built_dt
+            if built_dt.tzinfo is None:
+                built_dt = built_dt.replace(tzinfo=datetime.UTC)
+            age = datetime.datetime.now(datetime.UTC) - built_dt.astimezone(
+                datetime.UTC
+            )
             if age.days > 7:
                 print(f"WARNING: Package is {age.days} days old (built {created})")
         except Exception:
@@ -1303,6 +1346,7 @@ def run_calibration(
     """
     import time
 
+    started_at = _utc_now_isoformat()
     t0 = time.time()
 
     # Early exit: load pre-built package
@@ -1547,16 +1591,14 @@ def run_calibration(
     # Step 6b: Save the calibration package. By default this is the
     # minimal package selected by target_config.yaml; use
     # --all-active-targets to build a broad diagnostic package.
-    import datetime
-
     metadata = {
         "dataset_path": dataset_path,
         "db_path": db_path,
         "n_clones": n_clones,
         "n_records": X_sparse.shape[1],
         "base_n_records": n_records,
         "seed": seed,
-        "created_at": datetime.datetime.now().isoformat(),
+        "created_at": _utc_now_isoformat(),
         "target_config_path": target_config_path,
         "package_scope": "minimal" if target_config else "all_active_targets",
         "matrix_builder": "chunked" if chunked_matrix else "precompute",
@@ -1573,20 +1615,63 @@ def run_calibration(
             Path(target_config_path)
         )
 
+    initial_weights = compute_initial_weights(X_sparse, targets_df)
     if package_output_path:
-        full_initial_weights = compute_initial_weights(X_sparse, targets_df)
+        package_payload = {
+            "X_sparse": X_sparse,
+            "targets_df": targets_df,
+            "target_names": target_names,
+            "metadata": metadata,
+            "initial_weights": initial_weights,
+            "cd_geoid": geography.cd_geoid,
+            "block_geoid": geography.block_geoid,
+        }
         save_calibration_package(
             package_output_path,
             X_sparse,
             targets_df,
             target_names,
             metadata,
-            initial_weights=full_initial_weights,
+            initial_weights=initial_weights,
             cd_geoid=geography.cd_geoid,
             block_geoid=geography.block_geoid,
         )
+        from policyengine_us_data.stage_contracts.calibration_package import (
+            validate_calibration_package_contract,
+            write_calibration_package_contract,
+        )
 
-    initial_weights = compute_initial_weights(X_sparse, targets_df)
+        completed_at = _utc_now_isoformat()
+        write_calibration_package_contract(
+            package_path=Path(package_output_path),
+            dataset_path=Path(dataset_path),
+            db_path=Path(db_path),
+            package=package_payload,
+            parameters=_calibration_package_contract_parameters(
+                workers=workers,
+                n_clones=n_clones,
+                target_config_path=target_config_path,
+                skip_county=skip_county,
+                skip_source_impute=skip_source_impute,
+                skip_takeup_rerandomize=skip_takeup_rerandomize,
+                chunked_matrix=chunked_matrix,
+                chunk_size=chunk_size,
+                parallel=parallel,
+                num_matrix_workers=num_matrix_workers,
+            ),
+            run_id=run_id,
+            started_at=started_at,
+            completed_at=completed_at,
+            duration_s=round(time.time() - t0, 1),
+            code_sha=metadata.get("git_commit"),
+            package_version=metadata.get("package_version"),
+        )
+        validate_calibration_package_contract(
+            package_path=Path(package_output_path),
+            package=package_payload,
+            dataset_path=Path(dataset_path),
+            db_path=Path(db_path),
+        )
 
     if build_only:
         from policyengine_us_data.calibration.validate_package import (

policyengine_us_data/stage_contracts/__init__.py

@@ -12,6 +12,18 @@
 """
 
 from .artifacts import ArtifactRef
+from .calibration_package import (
+    CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_CONTRACT_FILENAME,
+    CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_CONTRACT_TYPE,
+    CalibrationPackageParameters,
+    CalibrationPackageSummary,
+    build_calibration_package_contract,
+    load_calibration_package_payload,
+    summarize_calibration_package,
+    validate_calibration_package_contract,
+    validate_persisted_calibration_package_contract,
+    write_calibration_package_contract,
+)
 from .constants import (
     CONTRACT_FINGERPRINT_ALGORITHM,
     CONTRACT_SCHEMA_VERSION,
@@ -73,6 +85,10 @@
     "VALIDATION_REPORT_STATUSES",
     "ArtifactRef",
     "CANONICAL_STAGE_IDS",
+    "CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_CONTRACT_FILENAME",
+    "CALIBRATION_PACKAGE_CONTRACT_TYPE",
+    "CalibrationPackageParameters",
+    "CalibrationPackageSummary",
     "CONTRACT_TYPE_BY_STAGE_ID",
     "DATASET_BUILD_OUTPUT_CONTRACT_FILENAME",
     "DATASET_BUILD_OUTPUT_CONTRACT_TYPE",
@@ -97,6 +113,7 @@
     "ValidationFindingStatus",
     "ValidationReport",
     "ValidationReportStatus",
+    "build_calibration_package_contract",
     "build_dataset_build_output_contract",
     "canonicalize_for_fingerprint",
     "contract_from_json",
@@ -105,7 +122,12 @@
     "fingerprint_material",
     "is_canonical_stage_id",
     "is_canonical_substage_id",
+    "load_calibration_package_payload",
     "read_contract",
+    "summarize_calibration_package",
     "substage_ids_for_stage",
+    "validate_calibration_package_contract",
+    "validate_persisted_calibration_package_contract",
+    "write_calibration_package_contract",
     "write_contract",
 ]