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@fleur-petit fleur-petit commented Dec 19, 2025

Summary

This PR implements a postprocessing calibration method for quantile estimation using sk-learn's IsotonicRegression.

Changes

  • Added IsotonicCalibrator to postprocessing transforms.
  • Added tests to check IsotonicCalibrator functionality on different data with different settings.
  • Added example with visualisation to show the effect of IsotonicCalibrator on observed vs expected quantiles

Testing

  • Existing tests pass
  • New tests test new calibration method in different scenario's
  • Example script to visually inspect effect of isotonic calibration on observed vs expected quantiles.

@fleur-petit fleur-petit force-pushed the feature/673-calibration-isotonic-quantile branch from 4bd91ed to 469f92c Compare December 19, 2025 13:11
@egordm egordm added feature New feature or request OpenSTEF 4.0 Work for OpenSTEF 4.0 labels Dec 19, 2025
@egordm egordm self-requested a review December 19, 2025 15:43
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I have checked it and it looks great actually.

Maybe indeed only a few nitpicks:

  • Is that we should avoid calibration if the data is too small for some reason. Just to cover all the bases.

  • 100 points limit may be too strict since it picks 100 nearest points. It can also be that it's too big and thus picks irrelevant samples for quantile calculation. So adaptive sampling is probably a good default for a reason. We should probably keep it. <10 is probably too small though.

  • Because we have a fit function, it's easy to recalibrate on a recent forecast, so that's pretty nice.

fleur-petit and others added 7 commits January 16, 2026 16:22
Signed-off-by: Fleur Petit <fleur.petit@alliander.com>
Signed-off-by: Fleur Petit <fleur.petit@alliander.com>
* feature: add Selector transform

* add ForecastInputDataset testcases

* add selected_features to presets

* add doctest

Signed-off-by: Fleur Petit <fleur.petit@alliander.com>
…ne bug (OpenSTEF#787)

Signed-off-by: Fleur Petit <fleur.petit@alliander.com>
…lating. (OpenSTEF#790)

Signed-off-by: Fleur Petit <fleur.petit@alliander.com>
Signed-off-by: Fleur Petit <fleur.petit@alliander.com>
…hether there is sufficient data.

Signed-off-by: Fleur Petit <fleur.petit@alliander.com>
@fleur-petit fleur-petit force-pushed the feature/673-calibration-isotonic-quantile branch from 4d8f737 to cfba252 Compare January 16, 2026 15:23
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4 participants