Feat/spring template

forecasting_tools/__init__.py

@@ -130,16 +130,23 @@
 NumericReport.model_rebuild()
 DiscreteReport.model_rebuild()
 DateReport.model_rebuild()
+from forecasting_tools.data_models.conditional_models import (
+    ConditionalPrediction as ConditionalPrediction,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.data_models.conditional_models import (
+    PredictionAffirmed as PredictionAffirmed,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.data_models.data_organizer import (
+    PredictionTypes as PredictionTypes,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.data_models.numeric_report import Percentile as Percentile
+from forecasting_tools.data_models.questions import (
+    ConditionalQuestion as ConditionalQuestion,
+)
 from forecasting_tools.data_models.questions import QuestionState as QuestionState
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import ForecastBot as ForecastBot
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import Notepad as Notepad
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.main_bot import MainBot as MainBot
-from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.fall_research_only_bot import (
-    FallResearchOnlyBot2025 as FallResearchOnlyBot2025,
-)
-from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.fall_template_bot import (
-    FallTemplateBot2025 as FallTemplateBot2025,
-)
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.gpt_4_1_optimized_bot import (
     GPT41OptimizedBot as GPT41OptimizedBot,
 )
@@ -155,6 +162,15 @@
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.q4_template_bot import (
     Q4TemplateBot2024 as Q4TemplateBot2024,
 )
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.research_only_bot_2025_fall import (
+    FallResearchOnlyBot2025 as FallResearchOnlyBot2025,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.template_bot_2025_fall import (
+    FallTemplateBot2025 as FallTemplateBot2025,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.template_bot_2026_spring import (
+    SpringTemplateBot2026 as SpringTemplateBot2026,
+)
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.uniform_probability_bot import (
     UniformProbabilityBot as UniformProbabilityBot,
 )

forecasting_tools/data_models/numeric_report.py

@@ -22,10 +22,10 @@
 
 
 class NumericDefaults:
-    DEFAULT_INBOUND_OUTCOME_COUNT = 200
     DEFAULT_CDF_SIZE = (
         201  # Discrete questions have fewer points, Numeric will have 201 points
     )
+    DEFAULT_INBOUND_OUTCOME_COUNT = DEFAULT_CDF_SIZE - 1
     MAX_NUMERIC_PMF_VALUE = 0.2
 
     @classmethod

forecasting_tools/forecast_bots/bot_lists.py

@@ -8,12 +8,6 @@
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.experiments.q4_veritas_bot import Q4VeritasBot
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.forecast_bot import ForecastBot
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.main_bot import MainBot
-from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.fall_research_only_bot import (
-    FallResearchOnlyBot2025,
-)
-from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.fall_template_bot import (
-    FallTemplateBot2025,
-)
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.gpt_4_1_optimized_bot import (
     GPT41OptimizedBot,
 )
@@ -29,6 +23,15 @@
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.q4_template_bot import (
     Q4TemplateBot2024,
 )
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.research_only_bot_2025_fall import (
+    FallResearchOnlyBot2025,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.template_bot_2025_fall import (
+    FallTemplateBot2025,
+)
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.template_bot_2026_spring import (
+    SpringTemplateBot2026,
+)
 from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.uniform_probability_bot import (
     UniformProbabilityBot,
 )
@@ -51,6 +54,7 @@ def get_all_important_bot_classes() -> list[type[ForecastBot]]:
         Q2TemplateBotWithDecompositionV1,
         Q2TemplateBotWithDecompositionV2,
         FallResearchOnlyBot2025,
+        SpringTemplateBot2026,
         GPT41OptimizedBot,
     ]
 

forecasting_tools/forecast_bots/forecast_bot.py

@@ -987,6 +987,8 @@ def _llm_config_defaults(cls) -> dict[str, str | GeneralLlm | None]:
 
         if os.getenv("ASKNEWS_CLIENT_ID") and os.getenv("ASKNEWS_SECRET"):
             researcher = "asknews/news-summaries"
+        elif os.getenv("ASKNEWS_API_KEY"):
+            researcher = "asknews/news-summaries"
         elif os.getenv("PERPLEXITY_API_KEY"):
             researcher = GeneralLlm(model="perplexity/sonar-pro", temperature=0.1)
         elif os.getenv("OPENROUTER_API_KEY"):

forecasting_tools/forecast_bots/official_bots/gpt_4_1_optimized_bot.py

@@ -4,7 +4,7 @@
 
 from forecasting_tools.data_models.forecast_report import ReasonedPrediction
 from forecasting_tools.data_models.questions import BinaryQuestion, MetaculusQuestion
-from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.fall_template_bot import (
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.template_bot_2025_fall import (
     FallTemplateBot2025,
 )
 from forecasting_tools.helpers.asknews_searcher import AskNewsSearcher

forecasting_tools/forecast_bots/official_bots/fall_research_only_bot.py → forecasting_tools/forecast_bots/official_bots/research_only_bot_2025_fall.py

@@ -13,7 +13,7 @@
     MultipleChoiceQuestion,
     NumericQuestion,
 )
-from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.fall_template_bot import (
+from forecasting_tools.forecast_bots.official_bots.template_bot_2025_fall import (
     FallTemplateBot2025,
 )
 from forecasting_tools.util.misc import clean_indents