Q1 mods: Accommodate multiple-choice and numeric #5
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added 7 commits
April 15, 2025 11:50
* accommodate mc, numeric and binary * something wrong still
* ... but multiple-choice are biting me again * going to refactor a bit in next commit
* to accommodate multiple-choice and numerics * big chore * could be buggy * wrote one (1) test (sorry @ben)
hickman-santini
commented
Apr 30, 2025
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| if q_type == 'numeric': | ||
| forecasts = [f for f in forecasts if isinstance(f, list)] | ||
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| if not forecasts: | ||
| return np.nan | ||
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| cdfs_array = np.array(forecasts, dtype=float) | ||
| mean_cdf = np.mean(cdfs_array, axis=0) | ||
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| return mean_cdf |
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@CodexVeritas this is what we're talking about here: https://metaculus.slack.com/archives/C02JGTBC7DJ/p1745932666973469 (may be wrong)
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Especially check functions with
@BEN(functions.py). I added one measly test (sorry 😞). Especially the head-to-head (recalculated peer scores for pros vs bot team) are pretty dang complicated.There's a bug in calibration curves now but I'm tapped out - I bet it's simple, I just went about filtering to binaries in the worst way possible.
Have not touched the CP vs bots analysis.