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From European Benchmarks to Italian Policy Scenarios: Validity, Limits, and Calibration of Adoption SimulationsΒ #28

@apierr

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@apierr

Operational Recommendations

Option 1 – Refine the Simulations (Recommended) πŸ”§πŸ“Š

Re-run the Service Incentives (SI) scenario by incorporating:

  • Reduced institutional trust assumptions πŸ›οΈβ¬‡οΈ
  • Administrative capacity constraints βš™οΈ
  • Regional differentiation (North / Center / South) πŸ—ΊοΈ
  • Explicit municipal readiness scenarios πŸ™οΈ

πŸ‘‰ Goal: improve realism and national-level validity for the Italian context.


Option 2 – Keep the Simulations, Change the Framing πŸ§ πŸ“

Maintain current SI results but present them as:

  • An optimistic policy envelope 🌟
  • A city-level intervention scenario πŸ™οΈ
  • A non-scalable baseline (upper bound, not national average) 🚧

πŸ‘‰ Goal: preserve analytical value while avoiding overgeneralization.

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