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---
layout: default
title: Dan Cervone
---
<!-- PUBLICATIONS ROW -->
<h2 id="publications"> Journal Articles</h2>
<div class="pub">
<ul>
<li>
<img src="images/gpreg.png", width=146px>
<div class="pub-info">
<p>Gaussian Process Regression with Location Errors [<a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1506.08256" target="_blank">arXiv</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b> and Natesh Pillai
<br>
<i>Submitted</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<img src="images/micro_4.png", width=100px style="margin: 20px 35px 0px 35px">
<div class="pub-info">
<p>A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes [<a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1408.0777" target="_blank">arXiv</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>, Alex D'Amour, Luke Bornn, and Kirk Goldsberry
<br>
<i>Journal of the American Statistical Assocation (2016)</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<img src="images/micro_motifs.png", width=100px style="margin: 30px 35px 0px 35px">
<div class="pub-info">
<p>A Location-Mixture Autoregressive Model for Online Forecasting of Lung Tumor Motion [<a href="http://arxiv.org/abs/1309.4144" target="_blank">arXiv</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>, Natesh Pillai, Debdeep Pati, Ross Berbeco, and John Henry Lewis
<br>
<i>Annals of Applied Statistics (2014)</i>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
</div>
<h2 id="publications">Conference Talks</h2>
<div class="pub">
<ul>
<li>
<img src="images/voronoi.png", width=100px style="margin: 23px 35px 0px 35px">
<div class="pub-info">
<p>NBA Court Realty [<a href="slides/court_realty.html" target="_blank">slides</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SS-HJIici-k" target="_blank">youtube</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>
<br>
<i>New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (2015); Cambridge, MA</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<img src="images/Ct_standalone.png", width=160px style="margin: 50px 5px 0px 5px">
<div class="pub-info">
<p>A Multiresolution Stochastic Process Model for Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes [<a href="slides/epv_jsm.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>, Alex D'Amour, Luke Bornn, and Kirk Goldsberry
<br>
<i>Joint Statistical Meetings (2015); Seattle, WA</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<img src="images/fiducial.png", width=120px style="margin: 35px 25px 0px 25px">
<div class="pub-info">
<p>A Location-Mixture Autoregressive Model for Online Forecasting of Lung Tumor Motion [<a href="slides/lung_tumor_prediction.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>, Natesh Pillai, Debdeep Pati, Ross Berbeco, and John Henry Lewis
<br>
<i>Joint Statistical Meetings (2014); Boston, MA</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<img src="images/databall.jpg", width=120px style="margin: 50px 25px 0px 25px">
<div class="pub-info">
<p>POINTWISE: Predicting Points and Valuing Decisions in Real Time with NBA Optical Tracking Data [<a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/2014_SSAC_Pointwise-Predicting-Points-and-Valuing-Decisions-in-Real-Time.pdf" target="_blank">paper</a>, <a href="http://www.sloansportsconference.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/Pointwise.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y58UFbIBuFo" target="_blank">youtube</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>, Alex D'Amour, Luke Bornn, and Kirk Goldsberry
<br>
<i>MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (2014); Boston, MA</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<img src="images/epvticker.png", width=160px style="margin: 50px 5px 0px 5px">
<div class="pub-info">
<p>State of Transition: Estimating Real-Time Expected Possession Value in the NBA with a Spatiotemporal Transition Model and Player Tracking Data [<a href="http://www.nessis.org/nessis13/cervone.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fYa7M_H3S4" target="_blank">youtube</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b> and Alex D'Amour
<br>
<i>New England Symposium on Statistics in Sports (2013); Cambridge, MA</i>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h2 id="publications">Posters</h2>
<div class="pub">
<ul>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">Move or Die: How Ball Movement Creates Open Shots in the NBA [<a href="slides/move_or_die.pptx" target="_blank">pdf</a>]<br>
Alex D'Amour, <b>Dan Cervone</b>, Luke Bornn, and Kirk Goldsberry<br>
<i>MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference (2015); Boston, MA</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">Real-Time Prediction of Basketball Outcomes Using High-Resolution Spatio-Temporal Tracking Data [<a href="slides/EPV_poster.pdf" target="_blank">pdf</a>]<br>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>, Alex D'Amour, Luke Bornn, and Kirk Goldsberry<br>
<i>International Society for Bayesian Analysis World Meeting (2014); Cancun, Mexico</i>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h2 id="publications">Colloquia</h2>
<div class="pub">
<ul>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">
Predicting Basketball Possession Outcomes Using Optical Tracking Data [<a href="slides/nba_epv.html" target="_blank">slides</a>]</p>
<b>Dan Cervone</b>, Alex D'Amour, Luke Bornn, and Kirk Goldsberry
<br>
<i>Joint Statistical Meetings (2015); Seattle, WA</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">Gaussian Process Regression with Noisy Inputs [<a href="slides/GP_noisy_inputs.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]<br>
<i>Research in Statistics Student Seminar (March 2015); Harvard Statistics Department</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">Some Statistical Problems in Climate Reconstruction [<a href="slides/PQapr14.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]<br>
<i>Research in Statistics Student Seminar (April 2014); Harvard Statistics Department</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">POINTWISE: Predicting Points and Valuing Decisions in Real Time with NBA Optical Tracking Data [<a href="slides/PQdec13.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]<br>
<i>Post-Qualifying Talk (December 2013); Harvard Statistics Department</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">Precisely Forecasting the Location and Motion of Lung Tumors [<a href="slides/PQmay13.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]<br>
<i>Post-Qualifying Talk (May 2013); Harvard Statistics Department</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">A Two-Level Toeplitz Model for Large-Scale
Simultaneous Hypothesis Testing [<a href="slides/PQdec12.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]<br>
<i>Post-Qualifying Talk (December 2012); Harvard Statistics Department</i>
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">Real-Time Light Curve Classification [<a href="slides/light_curves.pdf" target="_blank">slides</a>]<br>
<i>California-Harvard Astrostatistics Collaboration (October 2012); Harvard</i>
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>
<h2 id="publications">Media</h2>
<div class="pub">
<ul>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">
<a href="http://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2014/03/bringing-order-to-the-court/" target="_blank">"Bringing Order to the Court"</a>, <i>Harvard Gazette</i> (March 2014)
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">
<a href="http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/ideas/brainiac/2014/03/a_new_more_accu.html" target="_blank">"A New (More Accurate?) Way to Evaluate NBA Players"</a>, <i>Boston Globe</i> (March 2014)
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">
<a href="http://grantland.com/features/expected-value-possession-nba-analytics/" target="_blank">"DataBall"</a>, <i>Grantland</i> (February 2014)
</div>
</li>
<li>
<div class="pub-info">
<a href="http://grantland.com/the-triangle/behind-databall-a-discussion-on-the-methodology-of-expected-points-value/" target="_blank">"Behind DataBall: A Discussion on the Methodology of Expected Possession Value"</a>, <i>Grantland</i> (February 2014)
</div>
</li>
</ul>
</div>